Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames homered to left center (415 feet), Turang scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Wood reached on infield single to third, Abrams scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 4Adames singled to right, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Mitchell homered to center (420 feet), Chourio scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Yepez singled to right, Thomas scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Ortiz singled to right, Adames scored on error and Frelick scored on fielding error by right fielder Thomas, Ortiz to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Contreras homered to center (412 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Vargas singled to left, Yepez scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Adames hit a ground rule double, Yelich scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML WSH +125 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −13 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Rob Zastryzny: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +53 Elo | MIL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 28–176th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–42 | 53–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 30–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–50–1 | 53–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–3 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.