Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob BarnesPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams homered to right center (416 feet), L. García Jr. scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7L. García Jr. homered to center (397 feet).4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Adams singled to left, Ramírez scored, Vargas to third.3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Vargas doubled to third, Wood scored, Ramírez to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Ramírez singled to center, Yepez scored, Wood to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Haase singled to center, Frelick scored and Monasterio scored, Perkins to third.0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Monasterio hit a ground rule double, Hoskins scored, Frelick to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Hoskins doubled to left, Ortiz scored and Chourio scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML WSH +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +81 Elo | MIL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 28–163rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–42 | 53–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 45–33 | 30–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–50–1 | 52–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.