Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jackson RutledgePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thomas singled to center, Young scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Winker homered to right center (403 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Frelick doubled to right, Adames scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Adames doubled to left, Contreras scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Lipscomb doubled to left, L. García Jr. scored, Ruiz to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Ruiz singled to right, Yepez scored, L. García Jr. to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Winker doubled to right, Abrams scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 70%
- ML WSH +225 / MIL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.2%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -238
- WSH +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +12 | WSH: Jackson Rutledge: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +101 Elo | MIL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 28–153rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–42 | 53–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 44–33 | 30–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–49–1 | 52–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.