Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios homered to right center (396 feet), Triolo scored.12–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 212–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 8Suwinski homered to right (370 feet).10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 7Tellez homered to right center (410 feet).9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 6Bart homered to left center (392 feet), N. Gonzales scored, Hayes scored and Suwinski scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 28–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 6Suwinski singled to right, Tellez scored, Hayes to second, N. Gonzales to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6N. Gonzales reached on infield single to shortstop, Reynolds scored, Tellez to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Perkins singled to right, Contreras scored, Yelich to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Chourio scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Reynolds homered to left center (408 feet), Taylor scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML PIT +140 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | PIT: Josh Fleming: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +88 Elo | MIL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 27–133rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–44 | 51–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 43–45 | 50–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–12 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.