Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Martin PerezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames homered to left (354 feet), Chourio scored and Bauers scored.0–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Monasterio singled to center, Frelick scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 30–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Hoskins homered to left (417 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Contreras doubled to left, Monasterio scored and Turang scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Frelick singled to left, Adames scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Adames doubled to center, Yelich scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML PIT +140 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 27–143rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–44 | 51–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 22–26 |
| Underdog | 34–18 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45 | 51–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–12 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.