Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8d'Arnaud homered to center (445 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Campusano homered to right center (391 feet), Kim scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 6d'Arnaud homered to center (431 feet), Olson scored and Ozuna scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Duvall singled to left, d'Arnaud scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Olson singled to center, Albies scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Bogaerts singled to center, Solano scored, Machado to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ATL -160 / SD +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- SD +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 3.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +27 Elo | ATL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 26–2618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–49 | 50–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–43 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–59–3 | 53–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–8 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.