Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Suárez homered to center (437 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 23–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 47–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 32–56–3 | 50–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–4 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.