Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Yilber DiazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, McCarthy scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 10Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Short scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Murphy homered to right center (431 feet), Rosario scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored, Walker to second, Pederson to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Walker walked, Carroll scored, Pederson to second, Marte to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 41–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Carroll singled to left, Perdomo scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Riley homered to center (430 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / ARI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +3 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Yilber Diaz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +1 Elo | ATL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 16th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 22–2117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–46 | 46–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–42 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–55–3 | 48–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–3 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.