Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 8Walker walked, Carroll scored, Pederson to second, Marte to third.5–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 45–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Ozuna homered to center (441 feet), Riley scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Herrera singled to right, Suárez scored, Herrera thrown out at second.3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Suárez doubled to left, Perdomo scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Marte homered to center (444 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Olson hit sacrifice fly to right, Albies scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Suárez homered to left (452 feet), Perdomo scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2d'Arnaud doubled to right, Ozuna scored and Rosario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / ARI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −11 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +34 Elo | ATL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 22–2318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 46–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 31–56–3 | 49–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–3 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.