Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Adam DuvallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8White tripled to center, Duvall scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Suárez grounded out to third, McCarthy scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6McCarthy tripled to center, Moreno scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Duvall homered to left (441 feet), Olson scored and Ozuna scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Rosario scored on error, Arcia safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Marte.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Murphy grounded out to shortstop, Ozuna scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +15 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 22–2217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–46 | 46–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–42 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–56–3 | 48–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–3 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.