Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna homered to center (422 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Riley hit sacrifice fly to right, Arcia scored, Albies to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Arcia homered to left center (401 feet), d'Arnaud scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5d'Arnaud singled to right, Duvall scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Ozuna homered to center (413 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Machado doubled to right, Cronenworth scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML ATL +100 / SD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SD: Elo 49.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +2 Elo | ATL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 25–2518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–48 | 49–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–43 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–57–3 | 53–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–7 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.