San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting1-3
- Gavin WilliamsPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth homered to right (375 feet), Campusano scored.7–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 8Campusano singled to center, Kim scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 15–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8D. Peralta homered to right (365 feet).4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Cronenworth hit by pitch, Kim scored, Arraez to second, Campusano to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Arraez walked, D. Peralta scored, Campusano to second, Kim to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball 42–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Campusano singled to left, Merrill scored, Kim to second, D. Peralta to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML SD -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 31–111st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 53–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 26–30 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 54–45–1 | 49–45–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.