San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Fry scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 8Rocchio singled to right, J. Naylor scored and Ramírez scored, Fry to third.0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 8Fry walked, Martínez scored, J. Naylor to second, Ramírez to third.0–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 40–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Bo Naylor scored and Kwan scored, Martínez to second.0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Schneemann doubled to center, Fry scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML SD +140 / CLE -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -149
- SD +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +12 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +30 Elo | CLE 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 30–111st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 52–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 54–44–1 | 49–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.