Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Noel homered to left center (424 feet), Freeman scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Palacios scored on error, DeLuca safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Schneemann.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Giménez singled to right, J. Naylor scored, Fry to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Martínez homered to right (398 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Díaz doubled to left, Palacios scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −10 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 26–2618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–42 | 43–51 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–30 | 19–32 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 49–42–2 | 47–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–4 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.