New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeLuca doubled to right, Siri scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Rice homered to right (372 feet), LeMahieu scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1Paredes homered to left (383 feet), Arozarena scored and Rosario scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Arozarena doubled to left, Díaz scored on fielding error by left fielder Verdugo.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Torres singled to left, Soto scored, Verdugo to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–18 | Road vs home | 23–2518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–43 | 40–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 49–42–1 | 45–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–10 TB in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.