New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rice singled to right, Cabrera scored, Soto to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Rice hit sacrifice fly to left, Cabrera scored, Soto to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Siri hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Rosario doubled to left, B. Lowe scored, Paredes to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3B. Lowe singled to left, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Soto homered to left center (425 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Wells homered to right (367 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Arozarena homered to left (368 feet), Díaz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +2 Elo | NYY 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–19 | Road vs home | 24–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–44 | 41–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–39 | 18–32 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 50–43–1 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–11 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.