New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rortvedt scored, Walls out at second.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Grisham hit sacrifice fly to left, Torres scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Grisham doubled to left, Volpe scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML NYY +105 / TB -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- TB: Elo 48.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–19 | Road vs home | 24–2517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–44 | 41–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–39 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 50–42–1 | 46–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–11 TB in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.