San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill grounded out to second, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second, Machado to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Merrill singled to right, Machado scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Profar homered to left center (425 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Arraez homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML SD +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 46.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −10 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 23–2423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–50 | 56–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders | 54–47–1 | 48–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.