Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Harold RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young singled to left, Vargas scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Thomas doubled to right, Young scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Abrams reached on infield single to first, Adams scored, Young to second, Wood to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Stephenson homered to center (426 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2De La Cruz doubled to left, India scored on error, De La Cruz safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Wood.3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 1Ramírez homered to center (429 feet), Abrams scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 1Slater hit sacrifice fly to left, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +25 Elo | CIN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 21–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–45 | 55–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders | 46–51–1 | 47–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–5 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.