Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Reds- Rece HindsBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Espinal homered to left center (390 feet).6–10
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–10
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 6Hinds homered to left center (454 feet), Fraley scored.6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 6Bell doubled to right, Burger scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 25–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 4Espinal singled to center, Hinds scored.5–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 4Marte scored, Hinds to third on passed ball by Fortes.5–6
- 4Marte scored, Hinds to third on passed ball by Fortes.5–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 4Benson grounded out to shortstop, Stephenson scored, Hinds to second, Marte to third.5–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Burger singled to center, Bride scored and De La Cruz scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Candelario homered to right (365 feet).3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML MIA +125 / CIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 63.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +20 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +96 Elo | CIN 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–31 | Road vs home | 24–2722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–55 | 52–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 22–26 |
| Underdog | 37–36 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 51–42–1 | 44–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.