Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Reds- Rece HindsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9A. Sánchez singled to left, Gordon scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 4J. Sánchez homered to right (378 feet), Edwards scored and De La Cruz scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 3Hinds homered to center (397 feet), Candelario scored, Steer scored and Marte scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Benson doubled to right, Hinds scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Candelario homered to right (389 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1India homered to center (407 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 61%
- ML MIA +145 / CIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -156
- MIA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −14 | MIA: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +59 Elo | CIN 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–30 | Road vs home | 23–2725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–54 | 51–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 37–35 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 50–42–1 | 43–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.