Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Edwards singled to left, Burger scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6De La Cruz homered to center (394 feet), India scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Bride singled to center, Edwards scored and J. Sánchez scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML MIA +150 / CIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 63.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +93 Elo | CIN 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–32 | Road vs home | 25–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–56 | 53–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 37–37 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 52–42–1 | 45–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.