Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin SlaterBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley doubled to right, Marte scored on error and Slater scored, Fraley safe at third on throwing error by second baseman L. García Jr..5–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 9Slater singled to right, Candelario scored on error and Steer scored on error, Slater safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Thomas.3–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 33–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Young scored on Farmer wild pitch, Winker stole second, Winker safe at third on throwing error by catcher Stephenson.1–8
- 7Young scored on Farmer wild pitch, Winker stole second, Winker safe at third on throwing error by catcher Stephenson.1–8
- 7Young scored on Farmer wild pitch, Winker stole second, Winker safe at third on throwing error by catcher Stephenson.1–8
- 5Yepez homered to left (366 feet), Thomas scored and Winker scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 4Ruiz homered to center (405 feet), Wood scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Wood singled to right, Winker scored and Yepez scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3India singled to center, Fairchild scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML CIN -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −17 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 20–2426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–44 | 54–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–27 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 46–34 |
| Overs–unders | 45–51–1 | 46–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–4 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.