Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood homered to left (404 feet), Nuñez scored and Vargas scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Fairchild homered to left (377 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Ramírez singled to left, Yepez scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Young scored on pickoff error by third baseman Marte, Yepez picked off third.1–2
- 3Young scored on pickoff error by third baseman Marte, Yepez picked off third.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Marte homered to left center (413 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML CIN -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 48.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +9 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 22–2424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–45 | 55–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders | 47–51–1 | 48–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–6 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.