San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, D. Peralta scored, Wade out at second, Kim to third.6–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 8Mountcastle singled to left, Santander scored and Rutschman scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 6Bogaerts homered to left (400 feet), Machado scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 5Arraez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Kim scored, Higashioka out at second.3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Higashioka singled to left, D. Peralta scored, Kim to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Kim doubled to left, Merrill scored, D. Peralta to third.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Mullins doubled to center, Mountcastle scored and O'Hearn scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Mountcastle singled to right, Henderson scored and Santander scored, O'Hearn to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3O'Hearn singled to left, Cowser scored, Henderson to second, Santander to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Henderson walked, McCann scored, Santander to second, Cowser to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 40–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML SD +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.93rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–22 | Road vs home | 30–2412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–50 | 53–50 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–36 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 57–49–1 | 58–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–1 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.