Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-2, 3 RBI
- Chayce McDermottPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Chisholm Jr. doubled to left, Edwards scored and Gordon scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Cowser doubled to right, Kjerstad scored, Santander scored and O'Hearn scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Gordon hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Edwards singled to center, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Bell homered to center (414 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | BAL: Chayce McDermott (no track record yet) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +82 Elo | BAL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–18 | Road vs home | 21–3329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–46 | 44–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–41 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders | 54–43–2 | 55–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.