New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fortes singled to left, Lopez scored, Rivera to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–6
- 6McNeil homered to right center (385 feet), Iglesias scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Burger homered to center (416 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 5Martinez hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5McNeil homered to center (401 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Bell singled to center, Burger scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Burger doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Rivera hit sacrifice fly to left, J. Sánchez scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Edwards singled to right, Lopez scored on error, Edwards safe at second on throwing error by right fielder McNeil, J. Sánchez safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +55 Elo | NYM 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 18–3129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–51 | 40–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders | 51–43 | 52–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–7 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.