Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santander homered to right (384 feet), Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Santander homered to right center (409 feet), Henderson scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 2Lowe homered to center (434 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 1Cowser homered to right center (420 feet), O'Hearn scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Rutschman homered to right center (384 feet), Henderson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +14 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +3 Elo | BAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–16 | Road vs home | 24–2113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–45 | 43–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 51–42–2 | 39–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–7 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
- Jun 30TEX 11 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 62%Miss
- Jun 29TEX 5 @ BAL 6Picked BAL 61%Hit
- Jun 28TEX 1 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 53%Hit
- Jun 27TEX 2 @ BAL 11Picked BAL 65%Hit
- Oct 10BAL 1 @ TEX 7PlayoffsPicked TEX 51%Hit
- Oct 8TEX 11 @ BAL 8PlayoffsPicked BAL 54%Miss
- Oct 7TEX 3 @ BAL 2PlayoffsPicked BAL 55%Miss
- May 28TEX 2 @ BAL 3Picked BAL 53%Hit