New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Judge homered to center (431 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Soto homered to center (426 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Mountcastle grounded out to shortstop, O'Hearn scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Wells homered to right (397 feet), Judge scored and Torres scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Torres reached on infield single to shortstop, Soto scored, Judge to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +39 Elo | BAL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–20 | Road vs home | 29–2110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–45 | 50–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 35–39 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 51–44–1 | 50–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–12 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.