Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-4
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch singled to left, Hoerner scored.4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Suzuki singled to left, Busch scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Hoerner singled to right, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Morel homered to center (412 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 61%
- ML CHC +145 / BAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -154
- CHC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +7 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +69 Elo | BAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–28 | Road vs home | 29–187th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–46 | 50–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 35–37 |
| Underdog | 34–17 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–49–1 | 50–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–1 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.