Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mastrobuoni scored, Nido out at second.9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 8Suzuki doubled to left, Hoerner scored, Busch to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 4Happ homered to right (395 feet), Hoerner scored and Busch scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Santander grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Henderson scored, Rutschman out at second.4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suzuki scored, Morel to second, Happ out at third.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Suzuki singled to center, Bellinger scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Westburg homered to left center (418 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Nido hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored, Swanson to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Busch homered to right (386 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 63%
- ML CHC +155 / BAL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.5%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -167
- CHC +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −9 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +60 Elo | BAL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 26th of 3017–28 | Road vs home | 29–175th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–46 | 50–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 35–36 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 41–49–1 | 49–39–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.