New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto singled to right, Trevino scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Judge homered to left center (397 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Urías tripled to right, Kjerstad scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Jones singled to center, Trevino scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Trevino doubled to left, Volpe scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / BAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −35 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–20 | Road vs home | 29–209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–45 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–40 | 35–39 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 51–43–1 | 50–41–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–12 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.