Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-3
- Albert SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Swanson singled to center, Happ scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Happ doubled to right, Suzuki scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Suzuki tripled to left, Busch scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Swanson homered to center (425 feet).5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Suzuki doubled to left, Busch scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Busch doubled to right, Hoerner scored and Nido scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Suzuki doubled to left, Busch scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML CHC +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +69 Elo | BAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 29–198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–46 | 50–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–50–1 | 50–40–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–1 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.