New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins doubled to left, O'Hearn scored and Rutschman scored, Mountcastle to third.5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 9Mountcastle grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Cowser scored, Rutschman safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Volpe, O'Hearn to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Rice homered to right center (405 feet), Grisham scored and Cabrera scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Santander homered to right (421 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Grisham homered to right (375 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Henderson homered to right center (414 feet), McCann scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Grisham singled to right, Volpe scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 47.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −11 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +17 Elo | BAL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–20 | Road vs home | 29–2210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–45 | 50–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 35–39 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 51–44–1 | 50–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–12 BAL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.