Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Andrew KniznerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hearn homered to left center (387 feet).8–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 8García grounded out to shortstop, Seager scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 8Langford doubled to left, Semien scored, Seager to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6Westburg homered to center (424 feet), O'Hearn scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Mullins homered to right (409 feet).5–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 15–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Knizner singled to right, Lowe scored and Foscue scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Santander singled to right, Urías scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Urías singled to center, Cowser scored and Mullins scored, Urías to second.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML BAL -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +5 Elo | BAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–16 | Road vs home | 24–2215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–45 | 43–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 16–5 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 52–42–2 | 40–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–7 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Jul 19BAL 9 @ TEX 1Picked BAL 52%Hit
- Jun 30TEX 11 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 62%Miss
- Jun 29TEX 5 @ BAL 6Picked BAL 61%Hit
- Jun 28TEX 1 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 53%Hit
- Jun 27TEX 2 @ BAL 11Picked BAL 65%Hit
- Oct 10BAL 1 @ TEX 7PlayoffsPicked TEX 51%Hit
- Oct 8TEX 11 @ BAL 8PlayoffsPicked BAL 54%Miss
- Oct 7TEX 3 @ BAL 2PlayoffsPicked BAL 55%Miss