Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle TylerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Gordon grounded out to first, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to second.3–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 3Edwards hit sacrifice fly to center, Bell scored, J. Sánchez to third.3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 3Cowser reached on infield single to first, Santander scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 13–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3O'Hearn singled to right, Rutschman scored, Santander to second.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Edwards scored and Gordon scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Gordon singled to center, Lopez scored, Edwards to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2J. Sánchez homered to right (429 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Westburg singled to left, Rutschman scored, O'Hearn to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 61%
- ML BAL -175 / MIA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -156
- MIA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Kyle Tyler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +86 Elo | BAL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–17 | Road vs home | 20–3329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–45 | 43–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 41–38 |
| Overs–unders | 53–43–2 | 54–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–0 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.