Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santander homered to right (407 feet), Rutschman scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Heim homered to right center (400 feet), Langford scored and Lowe scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML BAL +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 48.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +13 Elo | BAL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–16 | Road vs home | 24–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–45 | 43–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 21–36 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 53–42–2 | 41–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–7 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- Jul 20BAL 8 @ TEX 4Picked TEX 50%Miss
- Jul 19BAL 9 @ TEX 1Picked BAL 52%Hit
- Jun 30TEX 11 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 62%Miss
- Jun 29TEX 5 @ BAL 6Picked BAL 61%Hit
- Jun 28TEX 1 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 53%Hit
- Jun 27TEX 2 @ BAL 11Picked BAL 65%Hit
- Oct 10BAL 1 @ TEX 7PlayoffsPicked TEX 51%Hit
- Oct 8TEX 11 @ BAL 8PlayoffsPicked BAL 54%Miss