New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Burger homered to left center (412 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Martinez singled to left, Bader scored, Nimmo to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (399 feet), Edwards scored and Bruján scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Torrens hit sacrifice fly to left, Alonso scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +37 Elo | NYM 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 19–3229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–53 | 42–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–33 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders | 52–44 | 53–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–8 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.