New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell grounded out to second, Gordon scored, De La Cruz to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 9Lindor homered to left center (386 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7De La Cruz homered to left (385 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 5Bell homered to left (379 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Iglesias hit by pitch, Martinez scored, Stewart to second, Alonso to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Lindor homered to right (391 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4McNeil hit sacrifice fly to center, Iglesias scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Bruján doubled to right, Edwards scored, Bruján out stretching at third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2McNeil homered to right (388 feet), Stewart scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +48 Elo | NYM 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 20–3229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–54 | 43–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–34 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 41–37 |
| Overs–unders | 52–45 | 53–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–9 MIA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.