San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar homered to center (431 feet), Wade scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Hearn scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Santander homered to left center (442 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Merrill doubled to left, Bogaerts scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Bogaerts doubled to left, Machado scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Profar homered to right center (395 feet), Arraez scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Mountcastle grounded into fielder's choice to second, Westburg scored, Kjerstad out at second.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Westburg homered to right center (406 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 63%
- ML SD +160 / BAL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -170
- SD +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −1 | SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 30–228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–50 | 53–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 35–43 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 55–49–1 | 56–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–1 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.