Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Mountcastle singled to right, Westburg scored, Mountcastle thrown out at second, Mullins thrown out at home.7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 9Bell singled to center, Burger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Edwards hit sacrifice fly to left, Bruján scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 16–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 9Gordon scored, Chisholm Jr. safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Henderson, Burger to second, Bruján to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8De La Cruz doubled to left, Edwards scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Edwards reached on infield single to second, Fortes scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Bell homered to center (399 feet).6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 4Norby homered to right center (379 feet).6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 3Cowser homered to center (406 feet), O'Hearn scored and Mountcastle scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2McCann singled to left, Cowser scored, Hays to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 65%
- ML BAL -210 / MIA +175
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -186
- MIA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +83 Elo | BAL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–19 | Road vs home | 22–3329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–47 | 45–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–42 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders | 55–43–2 | 56–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.