San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins homered to right center (430 feet), Cowser scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Merrill hit sacrifice fly to center, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 7Mullins doubled to right, Cowser scored and Santander scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 38–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Merrill hit sacrifice fly to right, Bogaerts scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Machado homered to center (413 feet), Profar scored and Cronenworth scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 4Profar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Higashioka scored on throwing error by shortstop Henderson, Arraez out at second, Profar to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Bogaerts doubled to left, Profar scored, Machado to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Merrill scored on error and D. Peralta scored on error, Higashioka safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Urías.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -120 / BAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SD: Elo 49.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −9 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +7 Elo | BAL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3029–22 | Road vs home | 30–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–50 | 53–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 18–5 |
| Overs–unders | 56–49–1 | 57–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–1 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.