Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bregman homered to left (407 feet).6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 8Singleton singled to right, Peña scored, Loperfido to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 8Peña reached on infield single to second, Y. Diaz scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Biggio homered to right center (374 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Caratini singled to left, Peña scored, Meyers to second.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Meyers singled to right, Y. Diaz scored, Peña to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Peña reached on infield single to third, Bregman scored, Y. Diaz to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Y. Diaz singled to right, McCormick scored, Bregman to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML LAD +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- LAD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | +6 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 1.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +43 Elo | HOU 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 29–217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–55 | 53–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 46–46 | 33–37 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 53–51–1 | 42–55–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.