Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- River RyanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heyward hit sacrifice fly to left, Ohtani scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Biggio singled to center, Lux scored, Biggio to second, Heyward to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8T. Hernández homered to left (361 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Y. Diaz homered to left center (414 feet), Altuve scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Lux homered to right center (379 feet), T. Hernández scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Outman homered to left (343 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML LAD +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- LAD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | LAD: River Ryan: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 30–216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–55 | 53–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 46–46 | 33–38 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 54–51–1 | 43–55–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.