Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- David PeraltaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado singled to right, Profar scored, Cronenworth to third.2–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 8Cronenworth doubled to right, Higashioka scored and Arraez scored, Profar to third.2–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 7Machado hit a ground rule double, Profar scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 7Stallings homered to left (356 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6D. Peralta homered to right center (393 feet), Bogaerts scored and Merrill scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Profar homered to right (389 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Higashioka homered to left (360 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Doyle homered to left (352 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Merrill doubled to right, Bogaerts scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 65%
- ML COL +175 / SD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- SD: Elo 68.2%, market 65.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -188
- COL +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +132 Elo | SD 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–42 | Road vs home | 29–2818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–53 | 59–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 54–47 | 33–15 |
| Overs–unders | 59–49 | 60–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–12 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.