Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stallings homered to left (353 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Merrill hit sacrifice fly to left, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 7Bogaerts singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Machado to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5D. Peralta grounded out to second, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Goodman homered to left center (401 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 65%
- ML COL +175 / SD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SD: Elo 66.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +116 Elo | SD 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–41 | Road vs home | 28–2819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 59–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 53–47 | 33–15 |
| Overs–unders | 59–48 | 60–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–11 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.