New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lindor singled to right, McNeil scored, Lindor to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pillar hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Thaiss hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Ward scored on Quintana wild pitch, Adell to third on wild pitch by Quintana.1–1
- 2Ward scored on Quintana wild pitch, Adell to third on wild pitch by Quintana.1–1
- 2Bader singled to left, Alvarez scored, McNeil to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -155 / LAA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +61 Elo | NYM 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 25–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–57 | 60–51 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–36 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 54–31 |
| Overs–unders | 57–51 | 55–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–3 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.