New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Neto homered to left (391 feet), Stefanic scored and Schanuel scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Martinez homered to center (419 feet), McNeil scored, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Neto singled to center, Thaiss scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pillar singled to left, Neto scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +36 Elo | NYM 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3027–22 | Road vs home | 24–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–56 | 59–51 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 53–31 |
| Overs–unders | 57–50 | 55–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.