Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso homered to center (431 feet), Nimmo scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 8Laureano homered to left center (398 feet), d'Arnaud scored.9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Riley homered to left center (383 feet), Duvall scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Arcia homered to center (404 feet).5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Arcia walked, d'Arnaud scored on Peterson wild pitch, Alvarez Jr. to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 44–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Olson homered to right (426 feet), Riley scored and Ozuna scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +5 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 28–2616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–56 | 48–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–64–3 | 55–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 14–8 NYM in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.