Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Will BensonBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario hit sacrifice fly to right, Ozuna scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5India hit sacrifice fly to center, Fairchild scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Candelario doubled to right, De La Cruz scored, Candelario to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Benson homered to right center (394 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Candelario hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML CIN +125 / ATL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +75 Elo | ATL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 30–196th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–46 | 46–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 36–45 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 47–52–1 | 34–61–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–5 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.